Mic Drop #10: Disney Investor Day Predictions
An extraordinary presentation invites the question *everyone* is asking: how well did I do with my predictions?
I connect the dots across the OTT streaming marketplace for your competitive edge at PARQOR.com. Here, I will be highlighting and celebrating “mic drops” on my predictions from past PARQOR Member mailings.
This past Wednesday evening I tweeted my predictions for Disney’s Investor Day, nine in total (yes, I repeated the numbering for #1, moving along, nothing to see here, no edit button on Twitter…).
Prediction #1
Wow, was this four-hour presentation (!) precise.
I mean, “shock and awe” seems to be the main takeaway from most observers, but there are details in this presentation that simply were not available with previous press releases about Disney’s reorganization: release schedules for Disney+, pricing and details for Star, differences between Star and Star+, financial projections, and titles in development. Even if there are still questions about how Disney will evolve operationally, this aggressive content slate and Disney+ distribution strategy answers many of them. We now know what is coming between now and 2024.
Predictions #1a, 1b and 1c
The calendar seems like an obvious point: of course they were going to announce a calendar for Disney+ content. But remember, before yesterday, we didn’t have one because the COVID pandemic had thrown production schedules and therefore release dates into uncertainty. How much certainty would there be in their production schedule? It turns out, an overwhelming amount across the organization with the objective of 100+ new original titles per year.
Kevin Feige had little to say about Black Widow, thereby proving 1a and 1b wrong. Ugh.
Instead, he made it clear WandaVision is launching a new flywheel, announcing WandaVision will not only connect to the Doctor Strange sequel Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, but also to the third Spider-Man in the works at Sony.
I will go out on a limb and say they have not ruled out domestic U.S. PVOD release for Black Widow - the brevity of his mention of Black Widow, and CEO Bob Chapek harping on “flexibility” in his call with investors, suggests as much.
As for Star Wars, Lucasfilm President Kathleen Kennedy announced two new companion shows by The Mandalorian creator Jon Favreau and co-writer/director Dave Filoni: Rangers of the New Republic and Ahsoka. The three shows “will culminate in a cinematic story event.” Season three of The Mandalorian’s, and possibly the launch of these two spinoffs — will arrive around Christmas 2021. As for Rogue One, spy thriller Andor was announced, starring Diego Luna as Cassian Andor from the movie, and coming out in 2022.
Launched it has The Mandalorian, a new Stars Wars flywheel.
Prediction #2
We got a clear path ahead for Hulu. These two slides from CFO Christine McCarthy tell us they remain confident (but less bullish) on Hulu growth and profitability.
FX President John Landgraf’s presentation delivered an exciting upcoming slate of productions including Shogun, Alien, and a scripted drama series that explores the formation of the iconic rock band The Rolling Stones. He also announced that It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia has been renewed through its 18th season, blowing it well past the record for longest-running live-action comedy originally set by Ozzie & Harriet.
So, we indeed have a clear path ahead for Hulu and FX on Hulu.
Prediction #3
Disney announced 86.8MM Disney+ subs. It’s almost exactly in-between 85MM and 90MM, it’s got two eights in it, that makes it sexy…
(NOTE: Truly, if there’s one prediction that gives me the false confidence to risk traveling to Vegas before 2021, it’s this one)
Prediction #4
Yes I fell short under #1a and #1b above, but here I redeemed myself. They did not announce premiere access for Black Widow.
Then again, they didn’t not announce it either (see my point about “flexibility” above).
Prediction #5
At the end of his announcement for She-Hulk, Kevin Feige noted “She-Hulk is a “courtroom drama so who knows what characters we’ll run into”. I can take one good guess…
(Feel free to share this free newsletter to any and everyone you want. It helps spread the word.)
(If this email was forwarded to you, I am a former Viacom executive who connects the dots across the OTT streaming marketplace for your competitive edge at PARQOR.com. You can follow me on Twitter, where I often have fun exchanges with other folks interested in the streaming business, or on LinkedIn, which seems to be a fantastic channel for sharing positivity, but less optimal channel for sharing content).